Earlier this month, people voted a new constitution in a referendum. Sunday 27 is the day chosen by the National Election Authority to hold presidential and legislative elections (it would be followed by a second round of elections if necessary on January 31, 2016).
The general situation is cause of concern, though. In what may be called the big CAR instability pot, all dangerous ingredients are being stirred together: ethnic divisions, poverty, corruption, weak institutions, just to name a few. Elections, taken alone, can be of little help: it would be like asking a child to run a marathon right after he learned how to walk. Timing does not seem to be perfect: simply consider that less than three months ago, renewed clashes caused the death of several people and the postponement of the elections that were set on October 18.
What to do then? Everything is already in motion and forcing the “engine” to stop – that is to say postponing the election once again – may cause more troubles than benefits. Example: let’s say ad interim president Catherine Samba-Panza, which is not allowed to be a candidate, decided to push for a postponement due to security concerns; such a decision would make a perfect excuse for armed groups to take up arms again accusing her of wanting to keep power without being elected. Moreover, given the situation, a few more months would hardly make a real difference.
So, right now, UN mission MINUSCA (United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic) must verify and guarantee “the holding of free, fair, transparent and inclusive elections” as mean of “support for the implementation of the transition process” (MINUSCA Mandate).
In the mid-long term, efforts should be focused on DDR operations (Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration) as part of a wider Security Sector Reform (SSR) which is a fundamental pillar in every stabilization process in post-conflict scenarios. DDR has already begun but it has to be reinforced: as Dr Veronique Barbelet put it, these “programmes are essential to restoring peace in the country. But it has to be done right, targeting all armed groups in the country. In fact, the failure of the last DDR programme in 2012 has been pointed out as one trigger of the Séléka uprising” (LSE).
