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18-02-2015

Ukraine Update

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Among all of the eleven key points composing the new Minsk agreement, there are three of them that should be considered as crucial:

  1. 1)      ceasefire to take effect from 00:00 local time on February 15,
  2. 2)      withdrawal of all heavy weapons from the frontline[1],
  3. 3)      monitoring of point 1 and 2 to be carried out by the OSCE.

Seven days has passed since the meeting in Belarus capital and there has not been much of a change on the field.

The ceasefire has not been fully respected. Weapons went silent just for few hours but then started “talking” again. The city of Debaltseve, which is a strategic crossroads on the frontline, saw fierce fighting until this morning, when regular forces started carrying out President Poroshenko’s order to fall back.

The withdrawal of all heavy weapons has not been carried out so far. Today, separatist forces said they had started such operation as decided in Minsk but Kiev took such piece of news with scepticism since is seems that both parts were not so much into the idea of withdrawing their weapons until a full ceasefire would be respected by the opposite side.

OSCE’s inspectors have not been allowed to fulfil their monitoring duties. Despite OSCE’s Chairman Ivica Dacic called both sides to collaborate, according to the news coming from Ukraine separatists stopped inspectors from entering the city of Debaltseve.

Although it may be possible to see some positive signals in what happened today, the very next hours will be crucial. To give Minsk agreements a chance, it is vital that separatist forces will settle on the Donetsk-Seleznyev line without crossing it and that Ukrainian army will not try to retake control over lost positions. At the same time, OSCE inspectors should be allowed to get their job done. 



[1] According to the agreement, both sides should pull back artillery systems of 100mm caliber or more at least 50 km away, multiple rocket systems 70 km, and heavy rockets as well as missile systems 140 km.  

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Alessandro Mazzilli

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