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Al Baghdadi in pushing terrorist actions in North Africa and with the attack of Paris is applying the tactics of contingency.
There is not an optimal strategy for Isis, jihadi leaders know clearly that it's always the scenario to make a winning strategy. When the theaters of conflict are changed to the saturation of the possible new areas, the psychological defensive ability of the opponents weaken, making useless the prevention.
In the coming weeks the Isis will attempt pilot actions on Jordan, considered weak and undecided. The request for a prisoner exchange with the Jordanian government should be considered an experiment to test the real negotiating skills of Amman.
The caliphate lost permanently Kobane, and after activating a series of attacks to saturate the scenario, will move definitely southwest to try to open a corridor to Fallujah.
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Degree in Political Sciences and International Relations. Specialized in "Speculative models and educational researches in multimedia interaction of I°and II° level", adjunct university professor in investigative subjects with specific expertise on security in urban areas, on intelligence methods and peacekeeping. Communications expert in extreme situations.
Investigative journalist and intelligence analyst, he developed many strategic studies of all theather of war as the balcanic conflict, the Afghanistan's war and conflicts in Iraq and North Africa.
President of the European Center of Orientation and Studies (CEOS).
Director of the monthly magazine on line "Convincere".
Website: www.sergiogiangregorio.it
