It is important to also note the role of the EU in the push to begin peace talks. The EU have started applying pressure on Israel by banning funding projects in Israeli settlements built on Palestinian territories.
In Israel, both Netanyahu and Livni have responded by agreeing that the resumption of the peace process is a vital strategic interest for Israel. This message was instantly rewarded by the EU decision to put the armed wing of Hezbollah on its terrorism blacklist, but keep the dialogue channels open with its political wing.
The pieces are falling into place for a regional political settlement according to the American vision that would secure the national security of Israel by eliminating nearby threats, and launch the normalization of ties under an Arab umbrella. This means that the US has started to give the Israelis some concrete incentives to ensure they do not place any obstacles to beginning negotiations.
Jordan has a sturdy strategic position for the regional political settlement. The recent political developments in the region, from Egypt to Syria and the Gulf have presented Amman with the opportunity to be the political kitchen of the peace process, where the settlements are cooked up and served. This opportunity requires Amman to have open channels and dialogue with most of the protagonists of the regional political settlement. This can be seen with King Abdullah II’s visit to Egypt and his upcoming travel schedule across the region.
The re-shaping of the old moderate group (KSA, UAE, Jordan and Egypt) will be difficult in order to compensate the current absence of Egypt. Jordan should work harder to re-activate the political mandate of this group, especially after the symbolic gesture from the US when John Kerry met with the delegation of the Arab League in Amman.
The Saudis, Jordanians and the Emiratis have moved towards Egypt to take advantage of the unstable status of the new axis, which includes the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, Turkey and Qatar. Some believe that other reasons might be also behind the Jordanian move, such as the gas supplies and the anti- terror war in the Sinai.
The recent developments position Amman an appealing location for negotiation of the settlements. This in turn places pressure on Amman to consider wrangling reconciliation for the internal Palestinian reconciliation more quickly, in order to have them ready and unified for the coming negotiations.
Despite the chances of successful negotiations, those who oppose a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians could prove to be a major obstacle to even launching peace talks. Some opposition groups wield considerable political and security influence in the region.
The absence of the Syrians from any regional settlement could also have consequences. The situation on the ground in Syria highlights that their absence cannot be relied upon, because while they may appear not to be present, their influence will surely be felt.
There are many challenges for the future of the region, but the security challenge might be the most important at the moment, as the regional stage appears to be open for all actors and many plays.
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