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19-01-2014

EUROPEAN MISSION IN THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC?

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On Monday, January 20, the European Union Council is going to held a meeting in Brussels having in the daily agenda the discussion about a potential mission in Central African Republic (CAR), theatre of a dramatic ethnic conflict insomuch as the United Nation has warned the international community about a genocide risk. 

Anyway, different key factor may play a role in defining EU political dialogue results.

A slow European decision-making process

The slowness of the European decision-making process is due to the very EU nature and to her intergovernmental soul that regulate the foreign, security and defence policy management, field in which Member States jealousness of their prerogatives may jeopardize the political outcome. The whole European integration process has ached of political fractures and mistrusts since its first origin, especially among the biggest states like France, Germany and the United Kingdom. 

Unanimity is required

According to Lisbon Treaty Article 28, «decisions relating to the common security and defence policy, including those initiating a mission [...] shall be adopted by the Council acting unanimously». Generally speaking, considering some disappointing precedents, unanimity might be a serious obstacle but, given the CAR drama, a positive vote might be expected even from the most sceptical and suspicious Member States (Germany, for example). Moreover, voting in favour of a mission does not entail any automatic operational involvement.

Multilateral attendance

Lisbon Treaty Article 28 states that the «Council may entrust the implementation of a task to a group of Member States which are willing and have the necessary capability for such a task». At the moment, Estonia, Belgium and Poland are helping France in her ongoing mission by providing tactical and strategic airlift support and they are likely to continue to do so also in a potential European operation. Lately, the Baltic and the eastern states have increased their participation in multilateral mission but their contribution might be confined in operational support due to their military capabilities and economical resources. Military unit might be provided by larger state such as Great Britain and Spain. Italy and Germany might be do their part too, although Rome is struggling with economic and political problems, whether Berlin is still sceptical about France help request.

Military force and mandate

Numbers are clear: so far, 2500 African Union peacekeepers and 1600 French soldiers have failed in restoring peace and order in the Central African Republic. Therefore, in order to be successful, an European military mission should rely at least on 3000-4000 soldiers. 

The EU might take example from the former EUFOR Tchad/RCA mission. From 28 January 2008 to 29 March 2009 the European Union committed herself in a military mission in Eastern Chad and in the North East of the Central African Republic in order to improve the security in the region due to the Darfur crisis. 3700 EU soldier were gradually deployed in order to contribute to the protection of civilians in danger, to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid and to contribute to the protection of UN and associated both personnel and facilities. The common cost of the mission reached almost 120 million dollars but, to these days, it is considered as one of the most successful European missions.

To solve the CAR crisis, the EU may develop a similar approach: a military force counting on 3000-4000 soldiers with a possibly more sharp mandate (patrol, support and humanitarian aid distribution tasks might be not enough) whose duration might swing between 4 and 12 months. Moreover, the European Council may pre-emptively think about a further Security Sector Reform mission (SSR) in order to reform CAR security structure enabling national security forces in granting autonomously both peace and stability. 

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Alessandro Mazzilli

Degree in International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Turin.

Expert in Foreign Policy of Defence and Security and the relationships Euro - Atlantic.

Geopolitical analyst.

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