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16-02-2015

FOCUS ON LIBYA

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Post Gaddafi era

The Libyan Arab Spring did not bring democracy and stability as many thought it would. The power vacuum that Gaddafi left behind has not been filled up.

The current political situation in Libya is extremely complex and fragmented as there are different actors aiming at different goals using different means. Essentially is it possible to identify three main factions, each one fighting against the other two: the internationally recognised and legitimate-perceived Tobruk government, the New General National Congress (GNC) and the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries. 

Tobruk government launched a military operation called Operation Dignity to defeat GNC’s militias that are currently united under a sort of “umbrella organization” called Libya Dawan, and against Shura Council’s Daesh-linked militants. At the same time, while confronting regular troops commanded by general Haftar, the GNC and the Shura Council keep fighting each other.  

Daesh in Libya and Italy

The presence of Daesh in Libya worries the international community and Italy more that anyone. In the last weeks, news regarding potential missile attacks against Italy has been broadcasted by some Italian media. 

There is no mistake in thinking Daesh-linked groups as a threat, but there is no reason to believe that missiles are about to hit Italy. We already proved this piece of news wrong and we feel necessary to keep doing so.

Thanks to some Scud-B missiles, Libya used to be one of the better equipped countries in the area, second only to Israel and Egypt. At present, however, the situation is different: not only did the Arab Spring destroy most of Gaddafi’s armoury, but the Scud-B itself cannot be considered a threat to Italy as it could cover less than 300 km (255 km in optimal weather conditions) while Lampedusa and Sicily are respectively 290 km and 500 km away.

A military intervention in Libya?

A military intervention in Libya is currently debated. As stated before, it is extremely important to consider the complexity of the Libyan situation first; otherwise things could easily go wrong.

A “classic” peacekeeping operation would be useless given the operational context, the nature and the objectives of the actors that are involved in it. In ideal terms, the international community would unite the anti-Daesh front and provide its contribution with naval and air support in order to make the coastal area safe. Deploying ground troops could be a mistake, at least at first: intervening states could find themselves trapped in a insidious swamp.

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Alessandro Mazzilli

Degree in International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Turin.

Expert in Foreign Policy of Defence and Security and the relationships Euro - Atlantic.

Geopolitical analyst.

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