Daesh in Tunisia and Algeria?

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19-02-2015

Daesh in Tunisia and Algeria?

Written by Alessandro Mazzilli
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Tunisia and Algeria could be the next target of Daesh’s militants. It should be considered as something more than a simple risk since what happened yesterday – the attack against Tunisian border police at Kasserine – suggests that neighbouring countries should be prepared to deal with such threat.

Daesh is not alone though. Concerns rise given the fact that some armed groups in the area have already shown their support to the black flags. Moreover, should other militias come from the Sahel region, the “frontline” would swallow entire south Algeria. In the meantime, both governments took first steps to secure the Libyan border by deploying some military forces.

The development of the relationship between al-Qaeda and Daesh will be crucial. Although Bin Laden’s formerly-guided network should not be considered as al-Baghdadi’s ally, some qaedist groups might not be following the same line. In Tunisia, for example, the group known as Okba Ibn Nafaa Brigade displayed its support to Daesh despite its link with the AQIM (al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb). Clearly enough, al-Qaeda–Daesh relations will heavily affects the shapes of this crisis.

Considering such situation, the international community should act preventively by reinforcing relationships with Tunisia and Algeria. Although a peacekeeping mission would not be of any help in Libya, some form of hybrid peacekeeping could fit the Tunisian case. An international military force deployed along the border would help keeping stability in the area. Anyway, it would be necessary to provide such force with mandate and rules of engagement which would prevent it from getting excessively involved in Tunisian counterinsurgency operations against local armed groups.

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