Minsk agreement has not been respected. Almost two weeks have passed since the meeting in Belarus capital on February 11 and the situation in Ukraine is basically unchanged. Both sides have not held to the first three relevant points of the agreement: the ceasefire has been violated, heavy weapons are still on the frontline, and OSCE monitoring mission has found some serious obstacles. OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission (SMM)[1] that fighting has continued in and around Donetsk airport and in several other locations in the Donetsk region.
Among all of the eleven key points composing the new Minsk agreement, there are three of them that should be considered as crucial:
Seven days has passed since the meeting in Belarus capital and there has not been much of a change on the field.
The Libyan Arab Spring did not bring democracy and stability as many thought it would. The power vacuum that Gaddafi left behind has not been filled up.
The current political situation in Libya is extremely complex and fragmented as there are different actors aiming at different goals using different means. Essentially is it possible to identify three main factions, each one fighting against the other two: the internationally recognised and legitimate-perceived Tobruk government, the New General National Congress (GNC) and the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries.
Tobruk government launched a military operation called Operation Dignity to defeat GNC’s militias that are currently united under a sort of “umbrella organization” called Libya Dawan, and against Shura Council’s Daesh-linked militants. At the same time, while confronting regular troops commanded by general Haftar, the GNC and the Shura Council keep fighting each other.
Daesh met Libyan tribal leaders who work on the coast and was able to reach an agreement to compact and make common cause with the intention of controlling the entire coastline. The operation is being refined ... were eliminated groups linked to al-Zawahiri. By controlling the coast count stressing Europe by sending massive illegal: in the coming days it will reach thousands. The EU will fall into the trap and will examine the possibility of targeted interventions in Libya ignoring the Iraqi Syrian front. Moreover confidential sources inform us that secret agreements are underway to strengthen Al-Zawahiri and bring it back into play. German and English are very active.
Eyes will be on Minsk on February 11 as Russian, French, German and Ukrainian leaders are about to discuss a peace plan to solve Ukrainian crisis since the previous agreement signed in September 2014 has not been successful: the crisis has been growing in intensity instead of slowly fading away.
France and Germany called this meeting as they fear that a point of no return might be close to being overpassed. However, there is not so much room for optimism: as UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said, it would be wrong to call it Minsk Plus since there is no official deal yet. In Belarus capital, discussions are expected to be focused on some basic measures aimed to slow the crisis down and which would lead to a new and permanent peace agreement.
Al Baghdadi in pushing terrorist actions in North Africa and with the attack of Paris is applying the tactics of contingency.
There is not an optimal strategy for Isis, jihadi leaders know clearly that it's always the scenario to make a winning strategy. When the theaters of conflict are changed to the saturation of the possible new areas, the psychological defensive ability of the opponents weaken, making useless the prevention.
Many questions could be easily raised regarding the incident in Paris. Yet, the major questions are related to the consequences of this incident that comes in a very critical moment of shaping a new strategy of combatting terrorism. It is possible to consider Paris attacks as a smaller version of New york Sept 11th . However, Paris incident can not be compared to New york, but it is enough to think of launching a second version of Fighting terrorism where France will have a leading role. This might lead us to expect some of possible consequences or French reactions to the brutal attacks.
Finally, the European Union has decided, governments and security forces will have to work more closely in order to control the threats and violence of terrorism such as those that took place in Paris last week.
Like France has deployed its troops in the streets, the Hungarian prime minister formally asked Europe to close the doors to immigration, and many EU countries are considering to change the rules of travel "without a passport".
Pubblicato in data 8 dicembre 2014:
With the list of countries targeted by terrorism growing, we are starting to see an impact on the internal policies of various other countries also impacted. Concern is particularly growing in Europe as a result of the level of involvement many of its citizens and residents have in these terrorist groups.
Concern is growing amongst citizens, security officials believe the risks are increasing and Europe is a potential target and are calling for an effective strategy to be implemented. There are growing signs of radicalization across Europe. Aside from exploitation of human rights, social services and the more effective facilitation of daily life are major challenges that Europe already faces.
After two and a half days of tracking, 3 suspected jihadists killed and at least four hostages dead, two simultaneous actions of fire in Paris (Porte de Vincennes) and Dammartin-en-Goele, the nightmare began with the massacre in the preparation of Charlie Hebdo, in Paris, seems to be over. France and all European countries are wondering what kind of "monster" are facing.
