Minsk agreements were signed on February 11. This is the first of a series of weekly updates aimed to describe the implementation status of the first three crucial point of the agreement:
1. Immediate and full bilateral ceasefire (to take effect from 00:00 local time on February 15),
2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides,
3. Effective monitoring and verification regime for the ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons.
Minsk agreement has not been respected. Almost two weeks have passed since the meeting in Belarus capital on February 11 and the situation in Ukraine is basically unchanged. Both sides have not held to the first three relevant points of the agreement: the ceasefire has been violated, heavy weapons are still on the frontline, and OSCE monitoring mission has found some serious obstacles. OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission (SMM)[1] that fighting has continued in and around Donetsk airport and in several other locations in the Donetsk region.
Tunisia and Algeria could be the next target of Daesh’s militants. It should be considered as something more than a simple risk since what happened yesterday – the attack against Tunisian border police at Kasserine – suggests that neighbouring countries should be prepared to deal with such threat.
Daesh is not alone though. Concerns rise given the fact that some armed groups in the area have already shown their support to the black flags. Moreover, should other militias come from the Sahel region, the “frontline” would swallow entire south Algeria. In the meantime, both governments took first steps to secure the Libyan border by deploying some military forces.
Among all of the eleven key points composing the new Minsk agreement, there are three of them that should be considered as crucial:
Seven days has passed since the meeting in Belarus capital and there has not been much of a change on the field.
Daesh advances toward Tripoli recruiting men from the tribal clans are not aligned: currently number 4,500 militants (conservative estimate). The jahidisti moving columns of cars both technical and adapted to both civilian combat trying to avoid clashes in open spaces, preferring urban warfare. This is to limit losses and whether to give the 'impression to achieve immediate success and convince the population to join the Libyan men to emulate them. Tactically aim to increase the coastal control to establish training centers and establish in areas subjected the welfare state model of the caliphate.
The Libyan Arab Spring did not bring democracy and stability as many thought it would. The power vacuum that Gaddafi left behind has not been filled up.
The current political situation in Libya is extremely complex and fragmented as there are different actors aiming at different goals using different means. Essentially is it possible to identify three main factions, each one fighting against the other two: the internationally recognised and legitimate-perceived Tobruk government, the New General National Congress (GNC) and the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries.
Tobruk government launched a military operation called Operation Dignity to defeat GNC’s militias that are currently united under a sort of “umbrella organization” called Libya Dawan, and against Shura Council’s Daesh-linked militants. At the same time, while confronting regular troops commanded by general Haftar, the GNC and the Shura Council keep fighting each other.
Daesh met Libyan tribal leaders who work on the coast and was able to reach an agreement to compact and make common cause with the intention of controlling the entire coastline. The operation is being refined ... were eliminated groups linked to al-Zawahiri. By controlling the coast count stressing Europe by sending massive illegal: in the coming days it will reach thousands. The EU will fall into the trap and will examine the possibility of targeted interventions in Libya ignoring the Iraqi Syrian front. Moreover confidential sources inform us that secret agreements are underway to strengthen Al-Zawahiri and bring it back into play. German and English are very active.
Eyes will be on Minsk on February 11 as Russian, French, German and Ukrainian leaders are about to discuss a peace plan to solve Ukrainian crisis since the previous agreement signed in September 2014 has not been successful: the crisis has been growing in intensity instead of slowly fading away.
France and Germany called this meeting as they fear that a point of no return might be close to being overpassed. However, there is not so much room for optimism: as UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said, it would be wrong to call it Minsk Plus since there is no official deal yet. In Belarus capital, discussions are expected to be focused on some basic measures aimed to slow the crisis down and which would lead to a new and permanent peace agreement.
January 26, 2015. Nine months and eleven days have passed since Ukraine’s acting President Olexander Turchynov announced the beginning of an anti-terrorist operation on April 15 (2014) aimed “to protect Ukrainian citizens, to stop the terror, to stop the crime, to stop the attempts to tear our country [Ukraine] apart”[1]. Whoever thought it could have been a fast and easy campaign, has been proved wrong.
April-June 2014. Ukrainian forces initially focused on Donetsk. Then, on April 22, a military operation was launched to take back separatist-controlled territory in the East. The heaviest fighting involved the cities of Sloviansk and Lugansk and Donetsk.
July 2014. Ukrainian military forces succeeded in retaking control over Sloviansk while separatists were reported fleeing the city. (July 5). Until the end of July, the army and pro-Russia rebels kept engaging each other mainly near Donetsk and Lugansk. According to the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (NSDC), separatists were slowly losing their positions near Donetsk as well as in mid-southern areas of Lugansk Oblast.
August 2014. By the end of August, on the one hand, Ukrainian army progressively retook control over relevant portions of southern previously separatist-controlled territory (near Donetsk) but, on the other hand, Ukraine progressively lost control over part of its border with Russia. At the same time, separatist forces succeeded in obtaining a bridgehead in southern Ukraine and took control over Novoazovsk.
The Republic of Yemen bud from the ashes of two independent states, North Yemen (Yemen Arab Republic) and South Yemen (People's Democratic Republic of Yemen), in 1990. 'Ali 'Abd Allah Saleh was the first President of a unified state. Despite the existence of one single country, infighting has been affecting stability in Yemen since its birth: it first survived secessionist efforts in 1994 and then, ten years later, clashes burst out between government troops and followers of Shiite religious leader Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi.
