Week 1: February 15 – February 21. As of February 18, there were almost no signs of Minsk agreement’s first three points being respected: fierce fighting was reported, heavy weapons were not withdrawn from the frontline and OSCE’s inspectors’ access and freedom of movement were restricted.

Week 2: February 22 – February 28. As of February 24, despite some light improvement, the overall situation did not change: again, exchanges of fire were reported, there was confusion over weapons withdrawal and OSCE monitoring mission was restricted.

Week 3: March 1 – March 7. Although the ceasefire is said to be holding in some areas, violations continue (especially near and in Donetsk). Relevant episodes:  

·         March 1 – exchange of fire is reported near Mariupol;

·         March 2 – the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC) reports 39 ceasefire violations;

·         March 3 – the JCCC reports 24 violation in villages closed to Donetsk’s airport;

·         March 4 – tank fire is reported near Donetsk;

·         March 5 – artillery rounds are heard north-west of Donetsk;

·         March 6 – explosions are heard near Donetsk’s airport.

The second point of the Minsk agreement has not been fully respected as well. Although it is difficult to identify for certain every single violation, there is no doubt that heavy weapons are still being used. Relevant episodes:

·         March 1 – artillery round are fired near Donetsk’s city centre,

·         March 2 – the JCCC reports that 9 of the mentioned 39 violations are caused by tubed artillery,

·         March 3 – Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) may have been used near Donetsk.

In many cases OSCE inspectors’ freedom of movement has been restricted: they were prevented from following convoys, from entering building or villages and from passing some checkpoints.  On the one hand, that makes impossible to determine to what extent heavy weapons have been withdrawn and, on the other hand, it is a clear violation of Minsk agreement’s third point itself.  

At present, the overall situation in Eastern Ukraine is surely more stable than two weeks ago; nonetheless causes of concerns remain. Even a single incident might light the crisis up again. Moreover, until the first three points of Minsk agreement are fully respected, it will be almost impossible to implement the remaining points of the agreement; namely:

1.      Dialogue on the holding of local elections;

2.      Pardon and amnesty by banning any prosecution of figures involved in the conflict;

3.      Release of all hostages and other illegally detained people;

4.      Unimpeded and internationally supervised delivery of humanitarian aid to the needy;

5.      Restoration of full social and economic links with affected areas;

6.      Restoration of full Ukrainian government control;

7.      Withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, weapons and mercenaries from Ukraine;

8.      Constitutional reform and adoption of a new constitution by the end of 2015.

Notes on data collection and data reading. All collected data indicate the number of cases in which a violation of Minsk agreement occurred. Data are extrapolated from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine’s reports[1] and, please, consider them as purely indicative.