How this factor can, in future times, modify the strenght balances in the EU scenario is highly clear; two considerations come from this point of departure: one is strictly economical, while the other is exquisitely geopolitical.
In the first place, this brand new “awakening” of the danubian economics will lie on those countries situated in the southern quadrant of the european continent, like Italy, which, in a general perspective of a reinforcement of the Eastern Bloc,will be completely excluded by any decision procedure, kept safe by the franco-german-danubian axis.
The East-Central Europe, in fact, seems increasingly to be destined to play the role of the “third engine” of the Community, next to a breathless southern system and a still dominating western model, which constantly needs its eastern counterpart, ready to accomplish its strategic awakening started almost ten years ago.
This fact is connected to the geopolitical side of the whole matter: what once was identified by many as “a bridge-area between civilization and despair” has today abandoned that conceptual image of “Third World” so often utilized, in past times, by observers and analysts.
Countries like Poland and Hungary have finally become aware of their capabilities, accomplishing foreing policy choices, as the militarization of the Visegrád Group, that don’t seem not nearly hasty, as they were made after a very long and acute strategic consideration.
Centrepiece of this reasoning is the belief that the future of the East-Central Europe is not relying on the institutions of Brussels anymore, but on the will of their own governments.
A possibility that surely scares countries like France, which image is already declining (Johannes Jooste, Merrill Lynch chief market strategist, has recently said that France is the «sick man of Europe»), and Germany, trying to re-consolidate the danubian area around Berlin’s political power.
As formerly foretold, Europe is slowly shifting toward east; a process, that could seriously modify the balance of forces and the acceptance of responsibility in and out the EP, notwithstanding those countries which institutional fractures (never solved) has weakened their contractual capabilities.
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