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07-10-2014

ISLAMIC STATE AT EUROPE’S DOOR

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A picture that has been seen all over the world: a black flag waving on the top of a building in Kobani (also known as Ayn al-Arab), a Kurdish town in northern Syria, just 15 kilometres from the Turkish border.

Beware not to talk about a forthcoming invasion toward Europe though. It must be considered that Turkey is neither Syria nor Iraq. Unlike the other two states: Turkey benefits from an essential political and institutional stability that guarantees solidity to the whole country, Turkish armed forces are both better prepared and equipped and, finally, Turkey is NATO Member State and would receive necessary support from the Alliance in case of spillover.

Nevertheless, ISIS remains a serious threat both at regional and international level. Militants have given proof of being able to consolidate their territorial control and, so far, what should raise concern is that they may occupy the rest of Syria so much so that they would directly skim the entire Turkish border. Should that happen, the international community would face a vast militarized and access-to-sea equipped non-State. In such a situation, there would be serious repercussion in trades and Europe may be victim of dangerous infiltration due to its territorial proximity.

What to do then? On the one hand, US-led coalition airstrikes turned out to be almost ineffective. On the other hand, “dead dogs don’t bite” principle may not find application here: a traditional military intervention may eradicate the problem in principles but it may not in practice. In fact, the risk of creating an even worse power-vacuum that would raise the instability level it’s quite high. Therefore, unless they will be forced to do otherwise, strategic airstrikes against Islamic State position would be considered as main countermeasures.

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Alessandro Mazzilli

Degree in International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Turin.

Expert in Foreign Policy of Defence and Security and the relationships Euro - Atlantic.

Geopolitical analyst.

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