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14-06-2013

SYRIA: DOUBTS ON CHEMICAL WEAPONS

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The Obama administration has officially accused Assad's army to make use of chemical weapons during the conflict that is raging in Syria for more than two years. Damascus would then passed the "red line" so often mentioned by Obama and would thus have provided the ideal pretext for the U.S. to intervene actively with the supply of weapons to the rebels. The statements by the Deputy National Security Advisor to the White House, Ben Rhodes, of course, have attracted criticism of the other major international actor involved, Russia. Through a tweet, the president of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Duma, Alexiei Pushkov, categorically denied the claims of Rhodes, as well as filing them lies purpose-built  as it was in the past for Iraq.

If we analyze the situation more carefully arise doubts to which it would be appropriate to provide adequate answers. If, on the one hand, Washington points the finger at Damascus, the doubts about the use of chemical weapons in Syria remain enormous.

The chemical weapon concerned is the famous Sarin gas.

Also known as GB (according to the American classification), Sarin is a man-made chemical and was first made as an insecticide in Germany in 1938. The G-type agents, including Sarin, are liquid, colorless and tasteless, they can also be mixed in water and with almost all organic solvents. The Sarin also is percutaneous, therefore possesses the ability to penetrate through the skin. The CDC (Centers for Disease Control) reports that the GB (Sarin), as well as being odorless, it is the most volatile of all nerve agents.

The exposure to Sarin may occur according to different modalities. If Sarin is present in the air, it can be inhaled or otherwise absorbed by the skin. In case instead the Sarin is released in water, the simple contact with the contaminated water involves exposure to the agent. The effects of exposure to the gas may depend on time of exposure to the substance and quantity. Sarin's vapors trigger symptoms in a few seconds, otherwise regarding the gas in liquid form, which can produce effects even 18 hours after the exposure. These nerve agents affect the nervous system, causing continuous stimulation of glands and muscles. Then came up difficulty breathing, convulsions, mouth foaming and the individual exposed to sarin gradually loses control of his body. In fact the Sarin inhibits permanently fixating acetylcholine cholinesterase (AChE). If not taken care of properly, the individual can die due to exposure to Sarin also within 15 minutes. According to scientists, the minimum dose required to kill 50% of all the staff with which it comes into contact is 100 mg per minute per cubic centimeter (by inhalation), or 10,000 mg / min / cm ³ in the case of direct contact. The persistence of Sarin is relatively poor, can dissolve in a time comprised between 15 minutes and 4 hours. For the dispersion of the gas can be used as mortar or artillery shells, rockets, missile warheads or special dispensers. According to experts, Syria has about 650 tons of Sarin gas (to which should be added 200 tons of mustard gas).

The certainties of the White House, however, are not those of the majority of public opinion.

For months France is shouting from the rooftops to be in possession of evidence that Assad has used chemical weapons against his own people. According to Le Monde's journalists, local doctors would provide their overwhelming evidence of the use of chemical agents. The Foreign Policy of the United Kingdom has published the news that scientists from Porton Down English system would collect fluid from the victims of numerous attacks in Syria which proves the use of Sarin gas.

These accusations have been leveled much criticism, first of all was not guaranteed the necessary "chain of custody" of the findings, chain essential to ensure that the findings have not been altered. Of the same opinion is also the head of the UN investigation, Ake Sellstrom, who stressed that in the absence of convincing evidence on the chain of custody of the data collected, it is not possible to ascertain the validity of the information received from Syria.

Yet Carla del Ponte, the Swiss magistrate and member of the UN Commission which is investigating the use of chemical weapons in Syria, said that the only evidence in the possession of the United Nations demonstrate the use of Sarin gas only by the rebels. The fact is not surprising, if one thinks that there have long been an endless amount of evidence in support of this thesis, including a video showing insurgent with chemicals containers of the Turkish chemical society Tekkim. Little space has been reserved then for the news of 12 members of Jabhat al-Nusrah in possession of 2 kg of Sarin gas arrested by Turkish police in late May.

The conduct held until today by Assad and his team suggests that the Syrian army would have had no reason to use chemical weapons, it would have been even damaged. Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad, December 6, 2012 in an interview with Reuters, has clearly defined a "suicide" the possible use of chemical weapons. And so indeed it would, because then Assad would lose the support of Russia and China and would be alone against charges of world public opinion and run the risk of an international investigation into war crimes. In other words, it would be the worst strategic move. Yet the number of alleged victims because of Sarin would be around between 100 and 150. The question then is why an army like Syria, which effectively counteracts the opposition troops, should cross all limits putting his hand on chemical arsenal, attracting upon himself the condemnation of the whole world, for the sole purpose of causing 100 / 150 casualties among the rebels.

Allegations of Washington, however, came on time. In fact, on 4 June the regular army (supported by Hezbollah fighters) regained control of the city of Qusayr, in central Syria, including Homs and the Lebanese border. The city, that is strategically very important, was at the center of a bloody siege, from which it emerged victorious soldiers of Assad. The success of Assad could pave the way for the recapture of Homs, still partly controlled by the rebels. The announcement also came the same day that the UN has presented estimates of victims of the conflict, which now would amount to 93,000 by 2011.

The U.S., despite having promised support to the Syrian rebels, most likely will not provide the required RPG and anti-tank missiles, fearing that these same weapons may be directed against Western targets. It also opens up the prospect of a no-fly zone, which would result in a series of operations to destroy the Syrian defenses and that would result in casualties among civilians and damage to civilian infrastructure of vital importance. However, it remains to say that for now the White House has rejected this possibility.

 

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Claudio D'Angelo

Degree in Investigation and Security Sciences cum laude, University of Perugia.

Enrolled in the Master's Degree in Social Research for Internal and External Security - Safety and Security Manager. Intelligence analyst specialized in risk analysis, identification of possible threats and vulnerabilities of industrial sites, critical infrastructures and strategic objectives.

Expert in the management of emergency scenarios, procedures for crisis situations and  protection and safety of personnel working in areas of crises, with particular expertise in Middle East isseues.

Editor of the monthly magazine on line "Convincere", he conducts researches on the spread of jihadist groups in Middle East and North Africa, on the application of the complex systems theory to society and Network Analysis in the analysis process of intelligence.

 

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