Permeable borders – Radical groups have been prospering in Sahel region and the war that broke out in Mali favoured contacts between them. Nigeria may have to face both Boko Haram militias and those who may came to help them taking advantage of permeable borders that Nigeria shares with Cameroon, Niger and Chad.
Unity of command – According to US military doctrine, «unity of command means all forces operate under a single commander with the requisite authority to direct all forces employed in pursuit of a common purpose»[1]. Although there is no doubt that the two contests are completely different, the basic principle is the same: unity of command, in this case in Abubakar Shekau’s hands, protects internal cohesion; without it, the group would be weakened from its foundations.
Boko Haram – Weaknesses
Brutality and failure in obtaining mass support – Boko Haram’s crimes caused deep alienation among Nigerian people. Such a failure could weaken the group since this kind of support has always played a positive role providing some form of legitimacy to the insurgents. Furthermore, jihadist’s brutality forced common people to organize themselves in self-defence militias.
Poor self-sufficiency? – In addition to improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADs), some armoured vehicles and various light-guns make up Boko Haram’s armoury. Some sources say that the equipment has been stolen from the army. Therefore, should Nigeria succeed in cutting off any form and chance of procurement, such offensive potential may slowly vanish in the long run.
Nigerian government – Strengths
Political legitimacy – Considerations over Nigerian democratic principles aside, 2011 election saw current President Goodluck Jonathan winning thank to 58% of votes. From past counterinsurgency experience, e.g. Salvador, it is learned that political legitimacy is crucial in attracting people support and it is something that gives fair advantage to counterinsurgents.
International support – Once again, history teaches a lesson: international support can be crucially important. As it happened in El Salvador and as it is still happening in some other cases (e.g. the FARC one), also Nigeria would benefit from international help made of funding, equipment or military personnel.
Better sustainability: the strengths of numbers – In theory, Nigeria should be able to sustain a military effort for a longer time than Boko Haram. For example, there are more than 140 thousand men divided between the army and paramilitary forces (Police and the Security and Civil Defence Corps). Moreover, Nigeria could, on the paper, deploy a “stronger” force if compared with Boko Haram: for example, among everything, the government could rely on one armoured and two mechanized division, on one squadron of multirole fighter aircrafts (F-7/FT-7) and 9 attack helicopters (Mil Mi-24/Mi-35)[2]. Last but not least, as already mentioned before, international aid could help Nigeria in sustaining consequent economic effort.
Nigerian government – Weaknesses
Poor operational capabilities – Numbers aside, Nigerian forces’ operational capabilities raise concern, especially in qualitative terms. First of all, there are many timeworn armaments: for example, the army can only rely on first and second generation tanks such as T-55 and Vikers MK3. Moreover, «funding problems under decades of military rule until 1999, led to a deterioration in the serviceability of much of Nigeria’s equipment»[3]. Lastly, «procurement decisions have arguably not focused on the primary threats to Nigeria, favouring instead equipment designed for state-to-state warfare rather than counterinsurgency roles»[4].
“Disunity” – Corruption and questionable loyalty among ground-level units are huge problems as well: for example, in less than a month, between September and October 2014, more than 100 soldiers and officials faced court martial for mutiny, assault and AWOL (Absent without Leave)[5].
