More than a year after the military intervention by French in Mali, many issues related to the security environment of the entire region remain open. Although the terrorist groups operating in the Sahel have suffered some heavy defeats, they maintain a high ability to strike Western targets and continue to retreat in areas with poor control from the local governments - such as the south-west of Libya - and to strengthen the networks of their organizations.
On Monday, January 20, the European Union Council is going to held a meeting in Brussels having in the daily agenda the discussion about a potential mission in Central African Republic (CAR), theatre of a dramatic ethnic conflict insomuch as the United Nation has warned the international community about a genocide risk.
Anyway, different key factor may play a role in defining EU political dialogue results.
Central African Republic (CAR) keeps falling into chaos, more than 1000 people have died, nearly one million have been driven from their homes, and both French and African Union peacekeepers are struggling in their attempt of restoring general order but they are failing so far. That is why France has called the European Union for a military intervention. At present, just few European countries (Belgium, Estonia, Poland) are helping France in her Sangaris operation providing tactical support, but is not being enough.
French troops and African Union peacekeepers are currently failing in stemming violence episodes in Central African Republic (CAR), and that’s why, during 19-20 December European Council, Paris called the European Union to intervene, by force of arms and/or by budgetary support. The core of the French proposal is the creation of a multinational military force deployable within the African continent at the first signs of a crisis. Relying on such a political and military tool, if rightly planned, the EU will be able to skip the huge political and diplomatic procedure that usually foreruns a military operation. But being such a delicate matter, the whole debate has been postponed to the first 2014 European Council.
A great humanitarian crisis is still erupting in Central African Republic. The whole Country has fallen into chaos and civilian population is the first victim of the ongoing clashes between the Christian and Muslim paramilitary militias. France has already intervened supporting an African Union peacekeeping mission but, at present, the 1600 French military units running Sangaris operation are far from reaching their goal: disarming the militias, bringing them to peace-talk and consequently restoring order and security.
Civil war clouds are gathering above Central African Republic (CAR), a “lawless” country, where the number of clashes between Christians and Muslims is increasing, where armed groups have been accused of atrocities against civil population (including killings, burning villages and child soldiers conscription). That’s the alarm bell that was stressed by the United Nation in late November.
The European Union is ready to support crisis management operation AFISM-CAR led by France and the African Union which have on the whole deployed 4800 soldiers in Central African Republic (CAR). On 5 December 2013, the Political and Security Committee (PSC) of the EU endorsed the African Union request (dated 21 November) for funding support: by PSC decision, 50 million euros will sustain the mission. This 50 million aid will be mobilised through the African Peace Facility as part of the European Development Fund and will cover the costs of allowances, accommodation and feeding the troops deployed in the field, as well as salaries of civilian personnel and various operational costs such as transport, communication or medical services.
Signs of serious deterioration in the security environment in the Libyan capital have strongly emerged in the first week of November when on November 5, two people, including a militia commander al-Nassour, were killed in a gun battle between the militia Nassour and the militia of al-Souq al Juma district of Tripoli where the clashes took place.
At about eleven months away from air attacks French in Mali that have forced the Islamists to scatter throughout the territory of the Sahara, they are now slowly beginning to return. For the new president of Mali, Ibrahim Keita Boubcar their return will lead to a further difficulty to the stabilization of the desert in the north.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK The National Salvation Front, a Tunisian coalition of opposition, announced a national mobilization for October 23, to support the appointment of a new government. The date is the second anniversary of the birth of the coalition, which in the meantime has failed to draw up a new constitution, difficulties due to conflicts between the ruling party and the opposition.
