European press, especially Italian Media, are giving unlimited space to any news concerning Isis. Every day newspapers, TV, credited websites, in fact devote headlines and numerous journalistic services to the threat posed by the Islamic State against Italy. The sharp increase in mainstream media attention, however, is reached when came alarming news on the situation in Libya all over the world, situation ready to explode with serious consequences in southern Europe.
Tunisia and Algeria could be the next target of Daesh’s militants. It should be considered as something more than a simple risk since what happened yesterday – the attack against Tunisian border police at Kasserine – suggests that neighbouring countries should be prepared to deal with such threat.
Daesh is not alone though. Concerns rise given the fact that some armed groups in the area have already shown their support to the black flags. Moreover, should other militias come from the Sahel region, the “frontline” would swallow entire south Algeria. In the meantime, both governments took first steps to secure the Libyan border by deploying some military forces.
Daesh advances toward Tripoli recruiting men from the tribal clans are not aligned: currently number 4,500 militants (conservative estimate). The jahidisti moving columns of cars both technical and adapted to both civilian combat trying to avoid clashes in open spaces, preferring urban warfare. This is to limit losses and whether to give the 'impression to achieve immediate success and convince the population to join the Libyan men to emulate them. Tactically aim to increase the coastal control to establish training centers and establish in areas subjected the welfare state model of the caliphate.
The Libyan Arab Spring did not bring democracy and stability as many thought it would. The power vacuum that Gaddafi left behind has not been filled up.
The current political situation in Libya is extremely complex and fragmented as there are different actors aiming at different goals using different means. Essentially is it possible to identify three main factions, each one fighting against the other two: the internationally recognised and legitimate-perceived Tobruk government, the New General National Congress (GNC) and the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries.
Tobruk government launched a military operation called Operation Dignity to defeat GNC’s militias that are currently united under a sort of “umbrella organization” called Libya Dawan, and against Shura Council’s Daesh-linked militants. At the same time, while confronting regular troops commanded by general Haftar, the GNC and the Shura Council keep fighting each other.
Daesh met Libyan tribal leaders who work on the coast and was able to reach an agreement to compact and make common cause with the intention of controlling the entire coastline. The operation is being refined ... were eliminated groups linked to al-Zawahiri. By controlling the coast count stressing Europe by sending massive illegal: in the coming days it will reach thousands. The EU will fall into the trap and will examine the possibility of targeted interventions in Libya ignoring the Iraqi Syrian front. Moreover confidential sources inform us that secret agreements are underway to strengthen Al-Zawahiri and bring it back into play. German and English are very active.
Sanctuaries in North-East Nigeria – The “safe havens/sanctuaries” issue is relevant in many counterinsurgency/counterterrorism cases. The Taliban in North-West Pakistan, the FARC in the so called zona de despeje in mid-southern Colombia and Salvadorian militias in the mountainous region close to Honduras are just few examples. Boko Haram succeeded in taking territorial control over Borno federal state in North-East Nigeria, made it their safe heaven and started moving west: Yobe and most of Adamawa state fell under their control, while other neighbouring states have been targeted in many raids.
Boko Haram continues its terror campaign aiming to the creation of an Islamic state. As we stated in a previous analysis, the possibility of a new entity within Nigerian border has been the focus of debating in within the intelligence community. Like Al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, this would be the final stage of an evolutionary process. Recent attacks, including those happened in Baga on January 3 and 7, seem to support such idea.
Boko Haram is keeping its “holy war” going in Nigeria: three new attacks left victims on the ground in north-east areas of the Country. Despite the fact that an official claim is missing, Boko Haram is held responsible.
The Libyan internal divisions are increasingly reflected on the main power centres. As expected, the political and commercial interests follow routes laid down by ethnic, religious and tribal fragmentation fueling persistent struggles for the hoarding of resources and the division of power. Today Libya is basically divided into two major blocs, one of which (the islamist bloc) is composed of the forces engaged in the Opertion Dawn, The General National Congress (GNC) and other militias from the city of Misurata, in the north-west of country.
The civil war in Libya devours a clash total now difficult to reconstruct. On the one hand the militias of Misrata other educated and bourgeois historians rival Zintan: men of Misurata allied with the moderate Islamists have taken the last night the airport of Tripoli putting a mortgage on the strong control of the Libyan government and what which is now in a state of decay.
