An affiliate of al-Qaeda al-Jabat Nusra Front has already consolidated its control over an area of the north-eastern end, the regular troops of the regime backed by the movement Hezbollha Lebanese Shiite militants could take control of the west coast.

This fragmentation would almost certainly be the ideal fuel for a sectarian war not only in Syria but also in Iraq and Lebanon.

More likely scenario is related to the chemical weapons stockpiles currently controlled by Assad that might fall into the hands of Islamic extremists, before that happens Israel would be forced to further action in order to prevent their capture by Hezbollah or al-Qaeda as if that were not enough Jordan the most fragile U.S. ally in the Middle East could collapse under the weight of Syrian refugees.

Perhaps the best way to avoid these consequences is to intervene through a massive air campaign and through the supply of weapons to the opposition moderate.

Negotiate a settlement policy covering the expulsion of Assad as the Secretary of State John F. Kerry aspires to do would be the most desirable solution but at present it is extremely remote.

Ultimately there are significant risks to the U.S. in case of intervention in Syria, but also grave dangers inherent in the current policy of non-intervention.

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