Week 1: February 15 – February 21. As of February 18, there were almost no signs of Minsk agreement’s first three points being respected: fierce fighting was reported, heavy weapons were not withdrawn from the frontline and OSCE’s inspectors’ access and freedom of movement were restricted.

Week 2: February 22 – February 28. As of February 24, despite some light improvement, the overall situation did not change: again, exchanges of fire were reported, there was confusion over weapons withdrawal and OSCE monitoring mission was restricted.

Week 3: March 1 – March 7. Fighting of variable intensity took place almost exclusively in Donetsk region: although it seemed that the number of violations had lowered if compared those occurred in previous two weeks, the overall situation remained unstable.

Week 4: March 8 – March 14. No particular developments were noted; the parties were more compliant with Minsk II measures in Lugansk region than in Donetsk. It seemed that fighting increased in the area of Shyrokyne, not far from Mariupol.

Week 5: March 15 – March 21. The situation in eastern Ukraine is still quite unpredictable and could easily change; there are little guarantees regarding full implementation of Minsk II agreement in the short period.

Violations of Minsk II Measure 1 continued, although it seems that there was a slight improvement regarding the number of ceasefire violations: according to the data extrapolated from SMM reports, 53 episodes occurred in Week 5 while 60 occurred in Week 4. The situation in and around Donetsk is till unstable. In fact 43,4% of all episodes registered by the SMM (23 out of 53) occurred in Donetsk and in its outskirt, and involved the areas in and around government-controlled towns of Pisky (12km north-west), Opytne (13km north-west) and Avdiivka (15km north-west) as well as DPR-controlled[1], Spartak area (7km north-west) and Donetsk’s airport area 10km north-west). Ceasefire violations occurred almost entirely within Donetsk region (or Oblast): 48 out of 53 episodes. The situation around Shyrokyne deteriorated: 21 out of 53 episodes (39,6%) occurred in that area, 18 more than the week before.

Violations of Minsk II Measure 2 continued and consisted in the use of heavy weapons, in the presence of heavy weapons (stationary or on the move)[2]; and in the absence of heavy weapons in chosen storage sites. Ceasefire violation caused by the heavy weapons fire reached a new peak this week: 20 episodes. However, it should be noted that there were cases in which both side complied with Minsk agreement: in 3 Ukrainian Armed Force (UFA) sites, visited on March 15, the SMM confirmed the presence of all previously observed weapons; the location of 3 UFA storage sites that the SMM visited on March 17 complied with the respective withdrawal lines; the contents of 3 UFA and 8 DPR storage sites that the SMM visited on March 19 complied with the respective withdrawal lines; the contents of 3 UFA and 5 DPR sites that the SMM visited on March 21 was the same of previous visits; finally, 5 UFA and 3 DPR heavy weapons holding areas that the SMM visited on March 21 complied with the respective withdrawal lines.

Violation of Minsk II Measure 3 continued too. The SMM suffered from restriction on access and freedom of movement: the SMM was prevented from accessing buildings, town/villages, and particular areas; in many occasions the SMM was stopped at UFA/DPR/LPR checkpoints (CPs) and forced to go back or to wait there before passage was permitted (in some cases CP personnel run ID checks before letting the SMM through[3]); restriction of SMM freedom of access and movement was also caused by blocked roads[4]. 

Notes on data collection and data reading. All collected data showed in Picture 1 to Picture 5 below, display the number of cases in which a violation of Minsk agreement occurred. Data are extrapolated from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine’s reports[5]  and, please, consider them as purely indicative.

Picture 1 - Violations of Minsk agreement Measure 1 (Part 1)

 

Picture 2 - Violations of Minsk agreement Measure 1 (Part 2)

 

Picture 3 - Violations of Minsk agreement Measure 2

 

Picture 4 - Violations of Minsk agreement Measure 3 (Part 1)

 

Picture 5 - Violations of Minsk agreement Measure 3 (Part 2)