Ukraine weekly update: March 22

Europa / Ukraine weekly update: March 22 – March 28

05-04-2015

Ukraine weekly update: March 22 – March 28

Written by Alessandro Mazzilli
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EEC PRESS

Six weeks have passed since the beginning of the truce in eastern Ukraine. Triage’s updates’ purpose is to provide a report on the implementation status of the first three point of Minsk II agreement:

1. Immediate and full ceasefire and its strict fulfilment as of 00.00 (Kiev time) on February 15.

2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance to create a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, of 70km for MLRS and 140 kilometres for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch and tactical missile systems Tochka U.

3. Monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pull-out of heavy weapons by OSCE.

Week 1: 15 febbraio – 21 febbraio. As of February 18, there were almost no signs of Minsk agreement’s first three points being respected: fierce fighting was reported, heavy weapons were not withdrawn from the frontline and OSCE’s inspectors’ access and freedom of movement were restricted.

Week 2: 22 febbraio – 28 febbraio. As of February 24, despite some light improvement, the overall situation did not change: again, exchanges of fire were reported, there was confusion over weapons withdrawal and OSCE monitoring mission was restricted.

Week 3: 1 marzo – 7 marzo. Fighting of variable intensity took place almost exclusively in Donetsk region: although it seemed that the number of violations had lowered if compared those occurred in previous two weeks, the overall situation remained unstable.

Week 4: 8 marzo – 14 marzo. No particular developments were noted; the parties were more compliant with Minsk II measures in Lugansk region than in Donetsk. It seemed that fighting increased in the area of Shyrokyne, not far from Mariupol.

Week 5: 15 marzo – 21 marzo. The situation in eastern Ukraine is still quite unpredictable and could easily change; there are little guarantees regarding full implementation of Minsk II agreement in the short period. Fighting continued in Donetsk and Shyrokyne areas.

Week 6: March 22 – March 28. Generally speaking, as stated in the previous Weekly Update, there are little guarantees regarding full implementation of Minsk II agreement in the short period.

Ceasefire violations continued and occurred almost exclusively in and around Donetsk (37,2%) and Shyrokyne (48,8%). The number of episodes decreased if compared with previous weeks: 60 episodes during Week 4, 53 during Week 5 and 43 during Week 6. Interesting as it may be, it is definitively too early to predict full implementation of the ceasefire in the short time. Moreover, the JCCC (Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination) reported other 167 violations, most of them occurred within Donetsk’s airport area (106 out of 167): 95 violations occurred between 08:00hrs on 22 March and 08:00hrs on 23 March and 72 between 08:00hrs on 26 March and 08:00hrs 27 March.

Violations of Minsk II Measure 2 continued and consisted in the use and in the presence of heavy weapons. In this case, the number of episodes is higher than the previous week: 39 in Week 5 and 48 in Week 6. In particular, it is considerably higher the number of episodes consisted in the presence of heavy weapons: 17 in Week 5 (43%) and 29 in Week 6 (56%). It is also worth noting that the percentage of episodes caused by the use of heavy weapon went down from 51% to 43%. There were also cases in which both side complied with Minsk agreement: the location of 14 Ukrainian Armed Force, 10 DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) and 2 LPR (Lugansk People’s Republic) heavy weapons holding areas complied with the respective withdrawal lines and their content was the same of previous visits (1 Ukrainian Armed Forces and 1 DPR site, however, were visited for the first time).

Violation of Minsk II Measure 3 continued too. The SMM was restrained in fulfilling its monitoring functions by restrictions imposed by third parties and security considerations and, in few occasion, was threatened by military personnel. However, it is worth noting that 32 episodes occurred in Week 6 while 44 episodes occurred in Week 5.

Notes on data collection and data reading. All collected data showed in Pictures 1 to 6 below, display the number of cases in which a violation of Minsk agreement occurred. Data are extrapolated from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine’s reports^{^[1]} please, consider them as purely indicative.