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20-08-2013

SYRIA WHAT’S HAPPENING?

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Two years of civil war in Syria have caused more than 100,000 deaths and determined at least 1.7 million refugees across its borders.

The approximately three-quarters of Muslims of Syria belong to the Sunni sect. However, the Assad dynasty, which ruled the country from 1970 belongs to the minority Alawite sect, which is close to Shiite Islam.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is a staunch ally of Assad's government and has provided (and provides), military training and economic development.

Iraq provides aid to the Assad regime allowing Iranian combatants and arms supplies to arrive in Syria through Iraq.

But beware the support of Iraq to Syria is not without costs, in fact, violence is increasingly slipping over the Syrian border in Iraq until reaching inflaming tensions between the various sects.

The deadly attacks are growing in Iraq, probably if the conflict in Syria continues the most important victim of Syrian civil war will be Iraq.

Russia is instead the most important foreign supporter of the Syrian government, in addition to helping the Assad regime with the supply of weapons, it also supports the growing involvement of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, as well as having protected the regime from United Nations sanctions by using the its veto power in the Security Council.

But why Russia is so adamant in his support in Damascus? According to a theory because it has an interest in keeping control of his only naval base in the Mediterranean, located in the port of Tartus, the Russians also claim that their support to the government troops is justified in order to prevent the emergence of extremism Islamic Syria.

On the contrary, Saudi Arabia is the main supporter of the opposition in Syria, and together with the state of Qatar are sending billions of dollars in humanitarian aid and supplies of weapons to the Syrian rebels (anti-aircraft missiles and anti-tank missiles).

In supporting the anti Assad Saudi Arabia is challenging its main regional enemy, Iran Shiite.

The small as Qatar Saudi Arabia is a follower of the strict Wahhabi branch of Islam Samnite and is looking for a bigger role in the region by offering to host peace talks in his capital Doha.

The United States supports the anti - Assad through a "non-lethal assistance", body armor, communications equipment, and food aid. The United States nourish deep concerns about the conflict. Still smarting from unpopular interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq have no intention of going to shove in the Syrian conflict which would be much more difficult to get out of it, not to mention the justified fear that American weapons might fall into the hands of groups linked to al Qaeda who are fighting to the side of the rebels.

Once a close friend of the Sira the moderate Islamic government of Turkey has become a supporter of the rebels and provides them with the weapons they need.

At the request of Turkey, NATO missile defenses installed "Patriot" on the border to protect it from attack Syrians.

In Lebanon, Christians, Sunnis and strongly oppose Assad remembering the 30 years of occupation and oppression of Syrian influence in Lebanon. On the other side there is to support Assad Hezbollah's military wing, which has a great experience of guerrilla thanks to more than 30 years of conflict with Israel. The entry of Hezbollah in the Syrian civil war has greatly worsened the already strained relations between the different religious communities of Lebanon, making it more likely the chance of falling back into a civil war.

The government of King Abdullah of Jordan is struggling to not getting too involved in the civil war Syria and stresses that wants a political solution to the issue.

 Syria and Israel are still officially at war even if the relationship between the two countries is relatively stable.

A major concern in Israel is that Islamic militants could enter Israel through the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in the war of 1967.

This is the picture that presents itself and that international diplomacy must evaluate, although the civil war in Syria is concentrated risks that could inflame the whole Middle East are very high.

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Mario Neri

Law degree, postgratuated master degree in Criminology. 

International law expert and programs relating to the peacekeeping in crisis areas.

Reserve Officer of the Italian Army "Folgore". Intelligence analyst.

 

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