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21-08-2015

South Korea-North Korea: exchange of fire across the border

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Image source: japantime.com Image source: japantime.com

On Thursday afternoon, North Korea fired a rocket at South Korean positions. A second attack was reported and according to Col. Jeon Ha-gyu (South Korean military spokesman) it consisted in several rounds of 76.2 mm direct weapons. South Korea retaliated with a dozen 155 mm howitzer shells. No casualties have been reported so far.

This is the most relevant episode in five years. Three factors play a role here: the explosion of a mine earlier this month that injured two South Korean soldiers who belonged to a border patrol unit; the broadcast of South Korean propaganda messages via loudspeakers along the border; and an annual US-South Korea joint military exercise that started on Monday.

North Korean fire followed warnings sent over the border in which Pyongyang made it clear it would have targeted loudspeakers if propaganda messages had not stopped. About an hour after the exchange of fire, according to South Korea’s Defence Ministry, North Korea issued a 48 hour ultimatum in which South Korea is “asked” to dismantle its loudspeakers or face a military action.

Diplomatic pressure may succeed in deescalating the situation. Both sides should take a step back. However, Seoul’s smartest move would be complying with North Korea’s ultimatum looking forward to a pure political and diplomatic confrontation since it would be completely unreasonable to risk a military escalation.

 

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Alessandro Mazzilli

Degree in International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Turin.

Expert in Foreign Policy of Defence and Security and the relationships Euro - Atlantic.

Geopolitical analyst.

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