Week 1: February 15 – February 21. As of February 18, there were almost no signs of Minsk agreement’s first three points being respected: fierce fighting was reported, heavy weapons were not withdrawn from the frontline and OSCE’s inspectors’ access and freedom of movement were restricted.
Week 2: February 22 – February 28. As of February 24, despite some light improvement, the overall situation did not change: again, exchanges of fire were reported, there was confusion over weapons withdrawal and OSCE monitoring mission was restricted.
Week 3: March 1 – March 7. Fighting of variable intensity took place almost exclusively in Donetsk region: although it seemed that the number of violations had lowered if compared those occurred in previous two weeks, the overall situation remained unstable.
Week 4: March 8 – March 14. No particular developments were noted; the parties were more compliant with Minsk II measures in Lugansk region than in Donetsk. It seemed that fighting increased in the area of Shyrokyne, not far from Mariupol.
Week 5: March 15 – March 21. The situation in eastern Ukraine is still quite unpredictable and could easily change; there are little guarantees regarding full implementation of Minsk II agreement in the short period. Fighting continued in Donetsk and Shyrokyne areas.
Week 6: March 22 – March 28. Generally speaking, as stated in the previous Weekly Updates, there are little guarantees regarding full implementation of Minsk II agreement in the short period. Ceasefire violations continued and occurred almost exclusively around Donetsk and Shyrokyne.
Week 7: March 29 – April 4. Both sides did not stop violating Minsk agreement measures, and data extrapolated from OSCE SMM’s (Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine) reports show that the situation in eastern Ukraine is still fluid and unpredictable.
Week 8: April 5 – April 11. In general terms, the situation in eastern Ukraine hasn’t changed much in the last eight weeks. Although it is possible to spot some positive developments, Minsk agreement’s measures have been violated on a daily basis.
Ceasefire violations occurred within Donetsk/Donetsk’s airport area (27 episodes out of 60) and fighting between Ukrainian Armed Forces and DPR were much more intense in Donetsk area than elsewhere. The situation around Shyrokyne remained tense as well. In the meantime, the SMM assessed the overall situation in the Luhansk Oblast to be calm: 2 episodes only occurred within the region.
Violations of Minsk agreement’s Measure 2 consisted in the use of heavy weapons such as Grad missiles (122mm), 122 mm artillery, 120mm mortars and main battle tanks (100/125mm), in their presence within the buffering area and in absence of some pieces from heavy weapons holding areas. It should be noted, however, that the SMM visited 8 Ukrainian Armed Forces and 3 DPR storage sites and assessed that their location complied with the respective withdrawal lines and that their content was the same of previous visits (except in one DPR site, where one towed howitzer was missing).
Minsk agreement’s Measure 3 violations continued. Most of the times, the SMM was halted at checkpoints where military personnel asked inspectors to reveal their nationalities or to hand over their documents in order to pass the checkpoint. Access to some areas was denied apparently due to security concerns.
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VIOLATIONS OF MINSK AGREEMENT’S MEASURES
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DAY
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MEASURE 1
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MEASURE 2 |
MEASURE 3 |
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05/04 |
2 episodes § Donetsk area – 2 § Shyrokyne area – 1 § Other locations – 0 |
2 episodes § Donetsk area – 1 § Shyrokyne area – 0 § Other locations – 1 |
4 episodes § Donetsk area – 0 § Shyrokyne area – 1 § Other locations – 3 |
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06/04 |
10 episodes § Donetsk area – 2 § Shyrokyne area – 6 § Other locations – 2 |
8 episodes § Donetsk area – 0 § Shyrokyne area – 4 § Other locations – 4 |
2 episodes § Donetsk area – 0 § Shyrokyne area – 0 § Other locations – 2 |
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07/04 |
9 episodes § Donetsk area – 3 § Shyrokyne area – 1 § Other locations – 5 |
7 episodes § Donetsk area – 0 § Shyrokyne area – 1 § Other locations – 6 |
5 episodes § Donetsk area – 0 § Shyrokyne area – 1 § Other locations – 4 |
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08/04 |
14 episodes § Donetsk area – 4 § Shyrokyne area – 10 § Other locations – 0 |
9 episodes § Donetsk area – 0 § Shyrokyne area – 7 § Other locations – 2 |
6 episodes § Donetsk area – 0 § Shyrokyne area – 0 § Other locations – 6 |
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09/04 |
10 episodes § Donetsk area – 4 § Shyrokyne area – 4 § Other locations – 2 |
5 episodes § Donetsk area – 1 § Shyrokyne area – 2 § Other locations – 2 |
3 episodes § Donetsk area – 0 § Shyrokyne area – 0 § Other locations – 3 |
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10/04 |
15 episodes § Donetsk area – 12 § Shyrokyne area – 0 § Other locations – 3 |
6 episodes § Donetsk area – 2 § Shyrokyne area – 0 § Other locations – 4 |
7 episodes § Donetsk area – 0 § Shyrokyne area – 0 § Other locations – 7 |
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11/04[1] |
NA episodes § Donetsk area – NA § Shyrokyne area – NA § Other locations – NA |
NA episodes § Donetsk area – NA § Shyrokyne area – NA § Other locations – NA |
NA episodes § Donetsk area – NA § Shyrokyne area – NA § Other locations – NA |
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TOT |
60 |
37 |
27 |
The situation in eastern Ukraine poses problems that are no explicitly linked to Minsk agreement’s measures and their violation. For example, the SMM stressed the fact that civil population suffers from the presence of unexploded ordnance (UXOs) and landmines: in several villages, either government-controlled or DPR/LPR-controlled (Donetsk People’s Republic/Lugansk People’s Republic), «the villagers expressed concerns for their safety and for their livelihood as UXO and landmines prevent them from accessing their fields and therefore their ability to cultivate or raise livestock which are two major sources of livelihood throughout the region».
Notes on data collection and data reading. Data reported in the table above, display the number of cases in which violations of Minsk agreement occurred. Data are extrapolated from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine’s reports[2] and, please, consider them as purely indicative.
