Ukraine Weekly Update: April 19

Europa / Ukraine Weekly Update: April 19 – April 25

04-05-2015

Ukraine Weekly Update: April 19 – April 25

Written by Alessandro Mazzilli
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Ten weeks have passed since the beginning of the truce in eastern Ukraine. Triage’s updates’ purpose is to provide a report on the implementation status of the first three point of Minsk II agreement:

1. Immediate and full ceasefire and its strict fulfilment as of 00.00 (Kiev time) on February 15.

2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance to create a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, of 70km for MLRS and 140 kilometres for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch and tactical missile systems Tochka U.

3. Monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pull-out of heavy weapons by OSCE.

Week 1: February 15 – February 21. As of February 18, there were almost no signs of Minsk agreement’s first three points being respected: fierce fighting was reported, heavy weapons were not withdrawn from the frontline and OSCE’s inspectors’ access and freedom of movement were restricted.

Week 2: February 22 – February 28. As of February 24, despite some light improvement, the overall situation did not change: again, exchanges of fire were reported, there was confusion over weapons withdrawal and OSCE monitoring mission was restricted.

Week 3: March 1 – March 7. Fighting of variable intensity took place almost exclusively in Donetsk region: although it seemed that the number of violations had lowered if compared those occurred in previous two weeks, the overall situation remained unstable.

Week 4: March 8 – March 14. No particular developments were noted; the parties were more compliant with Minsk II measures in Lugansk region than in Donetsk. It seemed that fighting increased in the area of Shyrokyne, not far from Mariupol.

Week 5: March 15 – March 21. The situation in eastern Ukraine is still quite unpredictable and could easily change; there are little guarantees regarding full implementation of Minsk II agreement in the short period. Fighting continued in Donetsk and Shyrokyne areas.

Week 6: March 22 – March 28. Generally speaking, as stated in the previous Weekly Updates, there are little guarantees regarding full implementation of Minsk II agreement in the short period. Ceasefire violations continued and occurred almost exclusively around Donetsk and Shyrokyne.

Week 7: March 29 – April 4. Both sides did not stop violating Minsk agreement measures, and data extrapolated from OSCE SMM’s (Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine) reports show that the situation in eastern Ukraine is still fluid and unpredictable.

Week 8: April 5 – April 11. In general terms, the situation in eastern Ukraine hasn’t changed much in the last eight weeks. Although it is possible to spot some positive developments, Minsk agreement’s measures have been violated on a daily basis.

Week 9: April 12 – April 18. The situation around Donetsk and Shyrokyne remains quite unstable, thus making it almost impossible to fully implement Minsk II agreement.

Week 10: April 19 – April 25. Fighting between Ukrainian Armed Forces and Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) forces continued around Donetsk (especially in the airport area and around Avdiivka) and Shyrokyne.

Clashes in Donetsk area were particularly fierce on Monday 20 and on Wednesday 23; on the same days, the situation around Shyrokyne remained substantially calm. Here, the SMM (Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine) had been trying to establish a full local ceasefire; on Friday 24 it seemed it would be possible to demilitarize the area but fighting resumed and they were reported to be the most intense fighting since February 2105.

Although both sides declared to have withdrawn their heavy weapons, 120mm mortars and other pieces of artillery were used on both sides of the contact line. Moreover, the SMM observed the presence and movement of heavy weapons in government-controlled areas as well as in those controlled by the DPR and LPR (Lugansk People’s Republic). Finally, in some heavy weapons holding areas, OSCE’s inspectors noted that some previously-recorded weapons were missing; it is also source of concern the fact that some pieces have been collected in occasion of the Victory Day parade scheduled on May 9 in Lugansk People’s Republic.

SMM access and freedom of movement suffered from restrictions that were generally justified by security concerns. In most cases, the SMM was stopped temporarily and checkpoint personnel asked inspectors to reveal their nationality or to hand over their identity cards in order to pass the checkpoint.

The presence of unexploded ordnance is still a relevant issue in some area, while elsewhere operations to clear of land mines continue. Other issues consist in the presence of internally displaced persons and in the lack of food and medicines.

Notes on data collection and data reading.Data reported in the table below (Picture 1), display the number of cases in which violations of Minsk agreement occurred. Data are extrapolated from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine’s reports^{^[1]}. and, please, consider them as purely indicative.