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03-09-2013

LIGTH ATTACK - THE INVISIBLE DIPLOMACY

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Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Head of the Foreign Affairs Committees of the Iranian parliament Hossein Hosseini Naqavi have said in recent days that any Western attack on Syria would assign the right to react against Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East.

 Russia and China said they would not accept any interventionist position and place his veto any UN resolution against Syria, in particular, the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has officially asked to open a discussion at the United Nations to assess the risks of global instability the area due to a hypothetical missile attack U.S. , in consideration of the fact that the evidence of the use of gas Sarin by Assad documentarily have not been presented.

The scenery that can be seen , then, is that of an international community strongly divided , with the same Atlantic Alliance still, waiting to acquire a greater consensus on the military , Obama lives difficult moments , in fact, before he tried to avoid any U.S. involvement in the conflict, then threatened with an imminent missile attack unilateral decision finally grew concerned about the weight of the more radical Islamic groups in opposition to the regime has decided to take some time and to give space for diplomacy.

The Israeli intelligence services have activated channels reserved with certain groups of Syrian dissidents moderate to steer them towards political negotiations , Jerusalem wants Assad , though weakened , it does not fall to avoid the uncertainty of a future government in rebel hands too close to Islamic extremists strongly infiltrated by Al- Qaeda. At the same time the Israelis have good relations with the regime that until now, despite the formal state of war , did not have any attitude actually hostile to Israel.

Obama has always aimed at a negotiated departure of Assad , convinced that the previous Libyans and Egyptians did lever of Damascus , this solution would weaken Hezbollah and Iran , and in turn strengthened the new Israeli-Palestinian peace process , containing at the same time Syria and the whole area of the radical Islamic forces.

All this has not yet happened and according to the human intelligence Triage does not happen, there are numerous confidentiality agreements between the services of the countries involved in the conflict to transfer the scenario references in the balance between ethical and political needs , to a secret deal that will transform the ' hypothetical missile attack Western downward into an agreement for all , leaving essentially the framework unchanged.

The Syrian army at this time is trying to replace all military equipment possible targets defined by the U.S., dispersing the mobile launchers on the territory controlled in order to make identification difficult.

Assad is willing to endure a punitive attack on American ligth long as it is " light" and does not favor the rebels altering the current balance of power , if you attack us will not be deep, an intervention must be limited and shall not provide support to the rebels , only in this case, the scheme will be willing to not react and do not make any retaliation against Israel.

The agreement has done.

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Sergio Giangregorio

Degree in Political Sciences and International Relations. Specialized in "Speculative models and educational researches in multimedia interaction of I°and II° level", adjunct university professor in investigative subjects with specific expertise on security in urban areas, on intelligence methods and peacekeeping. Communications expert in extreme situations.

Investigative journalist and intelligence analyst, he developed many strategic studies of all theather of war as the balcanic conflict, the Afghanistan's war and conflicts in Iraq and North Africa.

President of the European Center of Orientation and Studies (CEOS).

Director of the monthly magazine on line "Convincere".

 

Website: www.sergiogiangregorio.it

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