The ISIL threat is very serious. Helped by Sunni tribal groups, ISIL has been able to declare the birth of an Islamic Caliphate from Eastern Iraq to the Syrian town of Aleppo within a month from the beginning of the offensive. Should ISIL be able to consolidate or expand their territorial control, neighbouring countries such as Iran, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey may be forced to face them. Although an immediate across-the-border advance could be ruled out, the main threat is posed by the potential infiltration of ISIL’s cells, which might be also linked to Al-Nusra and Al-Qaeda. Moreover, the Caliphate’s onslaught hides the seeds of interdenominational war: Shiite population is willing to fight and die fighting Sunni ISISL’s gunmen.
Big question marks arise regardin Iraq future. Both local and international media report ISIL militias to be closed to Baghdad, the Iraqi army is planning its counteroffensive to retake control of Mosul, and the Kurdish Peshmerga are thought to have taken the city of Kirkuk away from the ISIL[1]. Meanwhile, Russia, Iran and the United States are helping Iraq by sending military equipment. Will all of this be enough to avoid a bloody battle for Baghdad?
[1] The Kurd intervention shouldn’t be interpreted as an example of formal military cooperation/subordination to Baghdad. Kurdish want both and independent and formally recognised state and keep out ISIL’s gunmen from Iraqi Kurdistan. It is possible that their role in this crisis may be used by themselves as a tool in order to gain full independence. It goes without saying that, in that case, political tension across the region would be unavoidable.
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