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20-04-2015

Iran: towards a final agreement on nuclear issue?

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From Geneva to Lausanne, from fall 2013 to spring 2015. Here it is a new episode of an endless saga. Born in the 50es, Iranian nuclear plan has been a relevant issue for more than 20 years[1]. On November 24 2013, in Geneva, Iran and the P5+1 group signed what is officially known as Joint Plan of Action (JPA), an ad interim agreement that became effective on January 20, 2014.  A new agreement was reached on April 2 2015 in Lausanne and it is seen as the last huge step towards a final deal that should to be reached by the end of June 2015.

According to Lausanne agreement (in key points)[2]:

§  Iran has agreed to reduce by approximately two-thirds its installed centrifuges: it will go from having about 19,000 installed today to 6,104 installed under the deal, with only 5,060 of these enriching uranium for 10 years.

§  Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium at its Fordow facility for at least 15 years.

§  Iran has agreed to only enrich uranium at Natanz facility.

§  The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

§  Iran has agreed to redesign and rebuild a heavy water research reactor in Arak and will not build any additional heavy water reactors for 15 years.

§  Iran will receive sanctions relief, if it verifiably abides by its commitments.

§  Iran will limit domestic enrichment capacity and research and development for 10 years; it will limit additional elements of its program for 15 years; important inspections and transparency measures will continue well beyond 15 years and Iran will remain a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

US President Obama called it «a historic understanding with Iran» and Lausanne agreement is surely of great importance on the road to a final deal, but it is too early to celebrate. The most relevant issue that has to be solved is the one related to UN, EU, US and other states’ sanctions. As reported by CNN, Iranian President Rouhani said that there will be no official deal unless these sanctions are removed all at once on the first day of the deal's implementation[3]. A full understanding on such issue is needed but time is running out. Will a new extension of the JPA be necessary? The problem is not only of political nature as there are “procedural” obstacles as well. For example, a favourable vote of the US Congress is needed in order to eliminate all US sanctions[4]. Will the Congress vote on this and when? What will the outcome be? 



[1] Triage’s articles on Iran: http://www.triageduepuntozero.com/en/component/k2/itemlist/tag/Iran.

[2] Full text: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/04/240170.htm.

[3] http://edition.cnn.com/2015/04/09/politics/iran-nuclear-bill/.

[4] Ibidem.

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Alessandro Mazzilli

Degree in International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Turin.

Expert in Foreign Policy of Defence and Security and the relationships Euro - Atlantic.

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