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24-11-2015

Syria: the shooting down of the Su-24 and the fight against Daesh

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Source: Business Insider Source: Business Insider

Earlier today, a tactical Russian Sukhoi Su-24 warplane was shot down by two Turkish F-16 jets. Predictably, Russia and Turkey red the episode in opposite ways: according to Ankara, the Russian jet violated its national airspace and ignored all the warning given by the Turkish pilots; according to Moscow, however, its bomber aircraft was flying above Syrian territory near the border and may have been shot down by Turkish artillery.

What happened is quite relevant if analysed in the broader geopolitical regional context, especially under a fundamental premises: Syrian civil war and the fight against Daesh cannot be considered on different levels and as unlinked issues. Every dispute between foreign government over the conflict between Assad and Syrian rebel groups undermines every effort toward the creation of a broader coalition against the Islamic State.

The future of Bashar al-Assad remains the key issue.

Before getting to the point, here are three simple yet necessary considerations. First, the airstrike against Islamic State positions have been little effective, simply because strategically inadequate in the long term. Moreover, there are still doubts regarding the so called “boots on the ground” option. Finally, at present, taking down Assad would create a dangerous power vacuum.

Land operations are necessary in order to defeat Daesh and Syria must be the most important player in the game. Damascus has to be on the frontline, while the rest of the “maxi-coalition” should provide support both in logistical and operational terms. Assad is essential here in order not to transform Syria in a Risk! board and should hold power until no part of Syrian territory is under Daesh control. 

 

Alessandro Mazzilli

Degree in International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science of the University of Turin.

Expert in Foreign Policy of Defence and Security and the relationships Euro - Atlantic.

Geopolitical analyst.

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