Many observers believe that Washington would prefer to improve its negotiation position with Moscow before any settlement is achieved in Syria. Strategically, Jordan’s borders are one of the last leverage points to change the balance on the ground inside Syria. 

This is highlighted by the spreading instability across the region with the growing security crisis in Iraq, political turmoil in Turkey and political and security instability in Lebanon. However, it is important to note the US is making “Geneva II” an idle plan. This may lead to new developments in Syria and surprising, but critical events across the region.

On the other side, it seems that some US allies are facing new challenges. The Arab Spring appears to be riding a new wave, and on past form could rid the US of more friends in the region. 

The monarchies across the Gulf and the region did well to stem the tide of the Arab Spring within their countries, however it seems that may have only been a temporary measure. The Qatari initiative appears to be the beginning of change in the Gulf autocracies. The words chosen by Prince Hamad when he handed the power to his son Shiekh Tamim, illustrate that the coming era will play by new rules with participatory governance, elections and the foundation of a legitimate legislative power. 

Other gulf countries will also face similar challenges. The issues in Bahrain will quickly bubble to the surface, and the solution may be similar to Qatar. The King of Saudi Arabia, who had to cancel his vacation in Morocco and return home, seems to realize that the Saudis are not far from this kind of challenge as well. Their issues will likely play out around the role of youth and women. However, conflicts between the members of many ruling families will mean that any change is unlikely to be smooth.

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