Ukraine Weekly Update: March 29

Europa / Ukraine Weekly Update: March 29 – April 4

10-04-2015

Ukraine Weekly Update: March 29 – April 4

Written by Alessandro Mazzilli
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EEC PRESS

Seven weeks have passed since the beginning of the truce in eastern Ukraine. Triage’s updates’ purpose is to provide a report on the implementation status of the first three point of Minsk II agreement:

1. Immediate and full ceasefire and its strict fulfilment as of 00.00 (Kiev time) on February 15.

2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance to create a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, of 70km for MLRS and 140 kilometres for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch and tactical missile systems Tochka U..

3. Monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pull-out of heavy weapons by OSCE.

Week 1: 15 february – 21 february. As of February 18, there were almost no signs of Minsk agreement’s first three points being respected: fierce fighting was reported, heavy weapons were not withdrawn from the frontline and OSCE’s inspectors’ access and freedom of movement were restricted.

Week 2: 22 february – 28 february. As of February 24, despite some light improvement, the overall situation did not change: again, exchanges of fire were reported, there was confusion over weapons withdrawal and OSCE monitoring mission was restricted.

Week 3: 1 march – 7 march. Fighting of variable intensity took place almost exclusively in Donetsk region: although it seemed that the number of violations had lowered if compared those occurred in previous two weeks, the overall situation remained unstable.

Week 4: 8 march – 14 march. No particular developments were noted; the parties were more compliant with Minsk II measures in Lugansk region than in Donetsk. It seemed that fighting increased in the area of Shyrokyne, not far from Mariupol.

Week 5: 15 march – 21 march. The situation in eastern Ukraine is still quite unpredictable and could easily change; there are little guarantees regarding full implementation of Minsk II agreement in the short period. Fighting continued in Donetsk and Shyrokyne areas.

Week 6: 22 march – 28 march. Generally speaking, as stated in the previous Weekly Updates, there are little guarantees regarding full implementation of Minsk II agreement in the short period. Ceasefire violations continued and occurred almost exclusively around Donetsk and Shyrokyne

Week 7: March 29 – April 4. Both sides did not stop violating Minsk agreement measures, and data extrapolated from OSCE SMM’s (Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine) reports show that the situation in eastern Ukraine is still fluid and unpredictable.

Ceasefire violations did not further tail off: it did happen between Week 4 and Week 6 but during Week 7 a new peak was registered.

Graph

Concern rises regarding the situation in and around Donetsk’s airport and Shyrokyne: 58 out of 67 episodes involved these areas. Interestingly enough, during Week 7 clashes occurred mainly in Donetsk’s airport area while during Week 6 they mainly occurred in Shyrokyne. Both sides tried to reach an agreement to start a local ceasefire in Shyrokyne area: the situation was and still is tense but it is worth noting that on April 3, the SMM did not report any ceasefire violation in the area except from small arms fire aimed to hit an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) that was flying over Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in Berdianske.

Violations of Minsk agreement’s Measure 2 continued and most of episodes consisted in using heavy weapons thus meaning that they have not been completely withdrawn. In some SMM’s reports it is clearly stated that inspectors «observed the continued presence of heavy weapons in both the Donetsk and Luhansk regions». It should be noted, however, that in many cases it is not possible to precisely identify the weapons’ calibre, so it is possible that no violation occurred. The SMM also reported that both sides complied with the agreement in some occasions: the SMM visited 27 heavy weapons holding areas (2 of them, 1 DPR and 1 LPR, for the first time) and in just three cases (1 GOV-controlled and 2 DPR-controlled) some heavy weapons were missing.

Violations of Minsk agreement Measure 3 continued as well: the SMM suffered from some form of restrictions on inspectors’ access and freedom of movement on 26 occasions. It often happened that checkpoints’ personnel checked inspectors’ nationalities before letting them pass. Interestingly enough, most of Measure 3 violations occurred within Lugansk region.

Notes on data collection and data reading. All collected data showed in Pictures 1 to 6 below, display the number of cases in which a violation of Minsk agreement occurred. Data are extrapolated from OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine’s reports^{^[1]} and, please, consider them as purely indicative.