First Scenario – Assad wins the war. Should Damascus be able to regain full control of the country, troubles would rise almost all over the world: neighbouring states such as Turkey and Israel would have to deal with a potentially aggressive foreign policy aimed at re-establishing Syrian role in the Middle East while the Euro-Atlantic front would be politically dragged into it because of the presence of a strong and unfriendly regional power.

Second Scenario – Assad loses the war. In the same way, should the rebels overcome the regime's army, other threats to international security would come up. The problem is that the rebel front has been progressively losing the laic and democratic spirit that pushed the first phase of the revolution and it has been contaminated by the increasing presence armed squads linked to Islamic fundamentalist groups. Assad's defeat would determine the creation of a political and institutional swamp that would become a breeding ground for many of the so-called VNSAs (Violent Non-State Actors - such as terrorist groups and organised crime) that have been widely recognised as first-grade threats in the XXI century.

Clearly enough, a fully democratic and peaceful Syria would make a much more preferred Third Scenario but, as we have to deal with the harsh reality, this sort of “Syrian standoff” seems able to offer greater stability if compared to the scenarios outlined above.

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