John Kerry’s visit to the Middle East provides several signals on political issues in the region. In particular, it brings back into focus the goal of kick starting the immobile regional peace process.
The first signal is the American decision for Amman to be the meeting place with the Palestinians. The message is to both Palestinians and Jordanians foreshadowing Jordan’s role in the upcoming settlement process, which, if all goes well, will be looking much healthier in the coming weeks.
The newly appointed chairman Adli Mansour, has promised that he will fight with every means those who are trying to drag Egypt into chaos.
The Muslim Brotherhood in fact they plan to encourage mass protests to demand the return of the ousted Islamic leader Mohamed Morsi.
“Security is the priority” - This could be the slogan of the coming period for most of the countries in the region. As the Syrian crisis passes through a new phase, and there is a real focus on putting an end to the violence, there will be consequences for the region, mostly regarding security. Most of the countries are expected to face real security challenges, especially those who were part of the conflict in Syria, on political or a geographical level.
Jordan is one of the countries that could face this kind of challenge. Many indicators show that Jordan has adopted more proactive plans that help to maintain the security and stability of the country.
Overnight on 12-13 July several thousand Muslim Brotherhood supporters marched in the capital Cairo from the 6 October Bridge to the Presidential palace, during the march several cars were damaged. Meanwhile pro-Morsi activists continue to stage a sit-in at Rabaa al-Adaweya mosque.
Turkey, Qatar and Egypt have all recently experienced political transition and disorder. Strangely, it is the same three countries that have taken a hawkish position on Syria.
After the recent political succession in Qatar an exit strategy is looming. This change first appeared when Al Jazeera, the most effective tool of change in the Arab world and used extensively by the Qatari administration, was deprived from having priority or exclusivity in coverage of the succession in Qatar.
It seems that the only words of the newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rohani were enough to set in motion international opinion and stimulate the various powers to assess future opening to Iran. Before establishing officially, the president Rohani said that his future government is committed to a policy of constructive understanding with the world, all while defending the rights of the Iranian people.
Political and security impacts of the crisis in Syria are rolling through the region. From the political crisis in Turkey to the security impacts in Iraq and Lebanon. Syria’s neighbors should stand ready to deal with the new features of the crisis. Jordan should also be ready to face various scenarios related to the complication of the crisis moving across the Syrian border.
Eleven countries seem ready to increase their engagement in helping rebels group fighting Assad’s regime. That is what emerged from the latest “Syria Friends Group” summit hosted in Doha (Qatar, 21-22 June). Far from the 144 participants of the first Group meeting in Marrakech (12 December 2012), there were only eleven countries in Doha; and yet United States, Great Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates declared themselves ready and inclined to support the anti-regime guerrilla with weapons and equipment supplies. In Al-Thani, Qatar Emir, «force is necessary to achieve justice, and the provision of weapons is the only way to achieve peace in Syria's case». British Foreign Secretary William Hague declarations followed the same line, although he reiterated that London had yet to take a formal decision: «we won't get a political solution if Assad and his regime think they can eliminate all legitimate opposition by force, and so we do have to give assistance to that opposition», he said.
As the “Friends of Syria” summit begins this week, intense terrorist attacks are expected all across Syria.
Expectations of a military intervention in Syria were reduced after the “Eager Lion II” military exercises. Meanwhile, the American Axis are back to meeting under the umbrella of the “Friends of Syria Summit”, to discuss sending weapons to the rebels in Syria.
The blocking of “Geneva II” by the US should make the whole region more cautious as it prolongs the Syrian crisis and increases the likelihood of the violence breaking across its borders.
This is the same America that signed “Geneva I” and abandoned it some days after by aggravating the tensions within Syria, starting with the battle in Damascus and then Aleppo directly after.
